What the data actually says about winning AFL games — in plain English, for community coaches. We pressure-test the stats everyone yells about at the breaks against thousands of real captured games: what predicts winning, where scores really come from, whether momentum is real, and how to find the stat that wins for your team. No stats degree required.
The famous line says numbers can't be trusted. The truth is the opposite — a little stats know-how is exactly what stops you being fooled by them.
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The friendly, no-jargon guide to the numbers behind the series — r-values, p-values and the rest — in language any coach can use.
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We ranked the stats coaches yell about at the breaks. Turns out the clearance count is one of the weakest ones going.
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Holding more of the footy helps, but barely. "We controlled the ball and still lost" usually means you moved it sideways.
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Most goals start with a turnover, not a stoppage. And the longer you keep the ball alive, the more often you score.
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More than half of all possessions end in a turnover. Win the open-play scramble and you win the footy.
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Where you win the ball back is everything. An intercept in your forward 50 scores about six times as often as one deep in defence.
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"Apply pressure" isn't just a slogan. Pressure makes turnovers, turnovers make scores, and every link in that chain is tight.
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Pinning them in your half and waiting for the mistake works — because the mistake comes inside your 50, where it scores.
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Footy momentum is real — goals genuinely clump together. But the warning sign is how many have gone in, not how fast they came.
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Platform-wide averages can't tell you what wins for your side. Capture your own games and find the stat that lights up your wins.
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Some stats predict winning because they help cause it. Others predict winning because they're the scoreboard wearing a different hat. The principle behind every finding in this ...
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